Concordia Lutheran
Boys - Girls
2016 - 2017 - 2018
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State Rank #27
New Haven Semi-State Rank #6
West Noble Regional Rank #4
Northrop Sectional Rank #4
Most Likely Finish 7th place at Semi-State
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.2%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.




Season Rating Huntington North Invitational Defiance Early Bird Open Bruin Invitational New Prairie Invitational Culver Academies Invitational Summit Athletic Conference Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/19 8/26 9/9 9/16 9/23 9/30 10/7 10/14 10/21 10/28
Team Rating 363 403 406 495 441 420 435 447 403 347 376
Team Adjusted Rating 403 406 422 394 420 435 447 403 347 376
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Huntington North Invitational Defiance Early Bird Open Bruin Invitational New Prairie Invitational Culver Academies Invitational Summit Athletic Conference Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
122  Ellie Cates 10 19:49 20:05 19:50 20:37 20:39 20:25 20:28 19:52 19:35 19:56
160  Callie Hoover 9 20:04 19:57 20:23 20:27 19:46 19:58 20:13 20:36 19:47 20:18 19:56
221  Abbey Brennan 12 20:25 21:07 20:36 20:53 20:44 20:53 20:51 21:01 20:57 20:10 20:33
246  Abby Mays 9 20:30 20:27 21:02 20:51 20:31 20:52 20:23 20:39 20:16 20:31
281  Natalie Witmer 11 20:38 20:33 20:26 20:35 20:30 20:36 20:35 20:54 20:47 20:41 20:45
423  Carmen Trier 12 21:07 22:18 21:50 21:40 21:18 21:21 20:56 20:52 21:11 21:18 20:58
469  Rhaya Kaschinske 9 21:15 21:18 21:07 21:16 21:25 21:24 21:14 21:01 21:19 21:20 21:08
544  Gretchen Witmer 9 21:26 21:44 21:19 21:49 21:31 21:01 21:26
597  Haley Ulmer 11 21:36 21:40 21:28 21:38 21:22 21:52
1,129  Brenna Butler 9 22:55 23:42 23:00 22:25 23:21 22:42
1,339  Jada Shaw 12 23:21 22:20 23:16 23:18 23:49 23:22 23:30
1,340  Katelyn Nix 9 23:21 22:27 22:58 24:28 23:34
1,400  Grace Pennekamp 10 23:27 24:18 22:58 23:27 23:44 23:17
1,424  Mary Pennekamp 10 23:30 24:01 22:59 23:18 24:42 23:16




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 100% 21.8 505 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.8 1.8 1.9 2.2 3.2 5.0 7.6 10.1 14.4 20.5 31.4
Semi-State 100% 5.6 183 5.4 10.8 15.2 17.2 16.8 17.3 11.1 4.5 1.5 0.3 0.1
Regionals 100% 3.9 106 10.0 23.3 33.3 32.7 0.7
Sectionals 100% 3.5 81 12.5 26.2 61.4 0.1



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ellie Cates 100% 101.9 21.5%
Callie Hoover 100% 124.3 5.0%
Abbey Brennan 100% 150.8 0.1%
Abby Mays 100% 156.9 0.2%
Natalie Witmer 100% 166.2 0.1%
Carmen Trier 100% 189.8 0.0%
Rhaya Kaschinske 100% 194.3 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ellie Cates 100% 24.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.9 2.5 4.1 4.6 5.1 5.5 4.8 5.5 6.2 5.4 5.6 100.0%
Callie Hoover 100% 32.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.4 1.6 2.0 2.2 3.0 2.6 3.5 100.0%
Abbey Brennan 100% 47.8 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 99.4%
Abby Mays 100% 52.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 98.6%
Natalie Witmer 100% 60.4 0.1 0.1 95.7%
Carmen Trier 100% 90.3 54.8%
Rhaya Kaschinske 100% 98.9 36.8%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ellie Cates 100% 12.5 0.1 0.1 0.7 1.2 2.6 4.4 6.0 12.1 15.3 15.3 14.2 9.3 6.7 4.2 2.4 2.3 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 100.0%
Callie Hoover 100% 15.8 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.5 2.4 4.3 7.5 11.2 11.1 14.0 11.0 9.5 6.8 4.4 4.3 3.3 2.4 1.6 1.1 100.0%
Abbey Brennan 100% 22.6 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.1 2.0 3.9 4.5 6.0 6.8 7.1 7.1 7.2 6.4 6.7 6.1 100.0%
Abby Mays 100% 24.7 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.0 3.3 3.1 3.8 5.8 6.8 5.8 7.6 6.0 6.3 100.0%
Natalie Witmer 100% 28.2 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.4 2.0 2.1 3.2 3.1 5.1 5.5 5.1 100.0%
Carmen Trier 100% 39.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 100.0%
Rhaya Kaschinske 100% 42.7 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ellie Cates 8.7 0.6 2.0 3.3 5.7 10.8 16.6 16.1 15.9 10.7 6.7 4.5 3.4 1.6 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1
Callie Hoover 11.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 2.0 4.8 9.9 10.8 14.9 13.3 11.3 8.9 7.5 4.3 3.9 2.9 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1
Abbey Brennan 17.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.5 5.2 5.5 7.0 7.1 10.2 8.4 9.1 8.8 7.4 6.6 5.2 4.5 3.5 3.0
Abby Mays 19.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.9 1.2 1.9 3.3 4.6 6.7 6.4 7.5 7.9 9.7 8.2 7.7 7.0 7.0 5.5 5.6
Natalie Witmer 21.8 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.6 2.7 3.9 5.6 6.0 6.7 7.3 8.5 7.0 9.8 8.7 7.2
Carmen Trier 29.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.9 1.1 1.3 3.0 3.7
Rhaya Kaschinske 30.9 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.4 1.6 1.6